Lies, Damn Lies, and Spitzer.

I just can't let this go.

Once again, CNN in its infinite wisdom and responsibility for good use of statistics has given a show to Eliot (I'm-Not-Going-To-Make-A-Reference-Here-To-A-Number-That-Is-Greater-Than-8-But-Less-Than-10) Spitzer, who has used this time to make a general idiot of himself.

Last time I posted his mis-use of data from the New York Times regarding the total electricity use of China, and then coyly hints at a doomsday scenario for US firms. Alright, Ellie, here a few more numbers.

I took ten minutes today to play with Google Public Data. They post World Bank Development indicators, which are free and easily available up to 2008. I would like to draw attention to this graph.

The graph is kilowatt hours used per capita (that's per person if you didn't get it already) for the following countries: The US, China, Chile, Mexico, Egypt, Japan, Brazil, India, and Russia. Granted, this is 2008, but I'm assuming electric consumption in China per capita has not sky-rocketed 3,319 kwh per person to above 13,654 kwh per person in the past three years. Do I doubt the NYT's numbers for total electric use? No. But that's looking at a country of a billion people as a single entity. The average or per person electricity use in China is still much, much lower than the US. US companies need not fear the purchasing power of the Chinese competing with your typical American.

But let's consider another point, which I will make again. So the hell what if Chinese electric consumption is growing? This is a sign of growing income, better health, and better life. China is not a perfect country (no where near it regarding civil liberties), but it is good that the average Chinese person is on the whole less poor than their parents were. Take a new look, again using Google Public data at Gross National Income per capita for these same countries. The average Chinese person in 2008 earned about $1000 more than the average Egyptian, and $4000 less than the average Brazilian. Everyone makes a big deal about GNI/GDP surpassing Japan, and China now being the second largest economy in the world. Note that the GNI per capita of Japan is a cool $33,000. The average Japanese person makes $33,000 a year, while the average Chinese person makes (almost) $7000. Almost.

So there are two points I want to make:
1) Spitzer is measuring these things incorrectly, and then making stupid predictions about it in a shallow attempt to take advantage of US fear of China (and sadly it probably worked), and
2) Growth is not a whip-it-out contest. When you see these numbers, do not think of this in terms of a country now has greater wealth, and this is all a big competition to the top. Look at the average terms, and think of it in this way: the average Chinese person is richer than he was, meaning he can get medical care, education, food, and some of the things that citizens of Western and Latin American countries have enjoyed for decades now (note the growth of per capita GDP of Mexico and Brazil vs. China in the last graph). Growth is good, because Growth means life is improving. It would be nice if political and civil liberties came with economic power (the jury is still out), but I think dropping infant mortality rates around the world, increased primary school graduation rates, and better health outcomes are a really good start.

Again, Mr. Spitzer, have you no shame or intellect?

... and I made it through this whole post without using the words "Client" or "nine". ... oh... dadgummit.