Sunday, February 05, 2012

Argentine Sociologists Can't Use Statistics.

I've been following the Falklands/Malvinas dispute for a while now.  It's just a really great slow motion train wreck.  It's amazing that the dictator years of Argentina have such a hold on the people that they still cling to what was obviously a propaganda attempt by a fascist government to distract from the mass murder of its own people.

But its even more amazing when sociologists get into the fray and pretend to be economists.  Especially one Atilio Boron, who claims that the notion of the current government using the Falkands as a distraction from domestic problems is ridiculous, and that its the British trying to distract their population from their problems.  Because apparently:
"The UK's economy is no better than Argentina's. It was not Buenos Aires that had social unrest and riots last year, but London."

Alright lab partner, let's hold that statement up to the data for 2010 from Google Public Data.  And for the fun of it I'm comparing Argentina to Mexico as a regional Latin American comparison.

1) The per capita GNI (Atlas Method) of the UK is at about $38,000 give or take, meaning the average English person has the ability per year to purchase $38,000 worth of goods and services.  The average Argentine has about $8,500, which is $430 less than the average Mexican ($8,930).  So by the basic measure of economic purchasing power, Argentina is worse off than the UK... by a lot.

2) But maybe our good sociologist prefers to not use the paltry measures of income that an economist would.  How about life expectancy?  Argentina is about 75 years.  Not bad.  UK is at 80.  Just to point out again, Mexico is at about 76.  So the English and Mexicans are in general healthier.

Child mortality rates per 1000 live births: 4.6 babies for the UK, 12.3 for Argentina. 14.1 for Mexico.

Should I go on?  How about measures of inequality:

3) Just as a quick glance, the income share of the lowers 20% of income earners in 1999 (couldn't get Google Data past that, but I'm sure there are some more recent years... 1999 will do for my point): 6.14% for UK, meaning the lowest income earners had an okay amount of the pie, and a little over 3% for Argentina.  I'm too lazy to get the Gini right now, but I'm fairly confident in saying that the UK is most likely less unequal a society/economy than Argentina.

4) Let's bring in the UN (although avoid the apparently mandatory outbreaks of cholera associated with their involvement): the UN HDI for the UK is 0.86, and 0.80 for Argentina.  (Viva) Mexico is catching up at 0.77.  If we readjust the UN HDI for inequality (as they are now doing) for 2011, the UK drops to 0.77, Argentina drops to 0.64, and Mexico drops to 0.59. 

So the BS-o-meter is off the charts for Atilio Boron, because the economy of the UK is in every possible measure better than the economy of Argentina.  Maybe he should FGI* before he goes on record.  In fact for Latin America in general, there are several economies "doing better" than Argentina: Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Uruguay, Venezuela.  I would say that Mrs. Kirschner has plenty to distract the average Argentine from in 2012, and the fact that she's taking a page out of the "Dirty War" playbook should be unsettling to say the least. 

Again, this is pretty simple; let the people who live in the Falklands decide for themselves.  Have a referendum.  If they want to be English let them be English.  If they want to be Argentine, let them be Argentine.  But until then, grab some popcorn and enjoy the political fireworks.  

* $$$$ing Google it!

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